September 27, 2012
Multifamily will drive growth nationwide, as it already is doing in California, the school’s economists predict.
Forecasting a 112% increase for housing starts between 2011 and 2014 sounds pretty aggressive. But it’s not really, say David Shulman and Jerry Nickelburg, senior economists with UCLA’s Anderson School of Management, which recently released its latest projections for the economies in the U.S. and California over the next few years.
Shulman estimates that national starts will increase by nearly 25% in 2012 to 763,000, and then grow by more than 70% over the next two years to exceed 1.3 million in 2014, of which more than 400,000 starts will be multifamily.
The economists note, though, that their estimates for 2014 are relatively conservative, given that conventional wisdom has long been that the U.S. needs to build 1.5 million housing units annually to keep pace with population growth and replacements. What Anderson is actually predicting, says Shulman, is movement from… Read more…